Summary

Introduction

This short article explores the connection between African countries' national development plans and their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It examines the extent to which the NDCs of African countries are aligned with their national development plans, the important elements that can make Africa's NDCs support their national development priorities, and the actions that could be taken by African actors and their international development partners to help achieve a stronger alignment between climate action and development objectives in the African continent.

National development plans and NDCs are essential documents shaping national responses to Africa's two biggest challenges: climate change and poverty. Whether and how African countries connect their NDCs, and their national development plans will go a long way in determining countries' development trajectories in decades to come. Given Africa's complexity, size, and diversity, it is impossible to provide an exhaustive account here. The approach taken here is mostly illustrative, and the aim is to provide a broad overview and stimulate further research into the topic.

Examining the link between African countries' NDCs and their national development plans should be the current priority, especially now that many African countries are in the process of revising their NDCs in the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic and its devastating effects on social and economic conditions on the continent.

The NDC and National Development in the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement (PA) negotiated in 2015 marked a critical turn in global climate cooperation because, unlike in the preceding Kyoto Protocol (KP), in which developing countries were exempted from binding emission-reduction obligations, the Paris Agreement commits all countries—including poor, developing nations—to take on internally verified commitments for climate action. The NDC is the main instrument agreed under the Paris Agreement through which countries would articulate and communicate their climate-change-mitigation actions.

As the mainstay of the PA, the NDC is viewed as an innovative climate governance tool, because it provides the framework to integrate bottom-up, self-motivated voluntary commitments of countries with a set of legally binding provisions for monitoring and ratcheting up ambition under the international climate agreement. Crucially, the NDC was also seen as providing countries (especially developing ones) with the latitude and opportunity to link their climate pledges and action with their national development plans and priorities. Article 2 of the PA clarifies that the pursuit of the broader objective of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty provides the larger context within which the global response to the threat of climate change should be addressed. Article 4 (7) of the PA reinforces the connection between the NDC and national development planning by noting that the adaptation actions and the economic diversification plans of countries with mitigation co-benefits are considered integral parts of the NDC.

Misalignment of NDC and Development Objectives

Despite the stated intention that the NDCs could and should be used as both a tool and process for connecting the objectives of climate action with national development, the practice on the ground in many African countries has not generally followed this ideal. A cursory look at the situation in many African countries reveals critical gaps, tensions, and disconnection between NDCs and national development plans.

For example: in its national development plan, called the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), the government of Nigeria proposes to increase oil production and use the country's vast oil and natural gas resources to catalyze economic recovery (FGN, 2017). However, promoting growth through resource depletion could place an additional constraint on the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction objective and result in a huge implementation gap for the NDC.

Okoh and Owutuamor report that preliminary analysis based on the NELCAL2050 projection showed that Nigeria's NDC did not take into careful consideration Nigeria's economic growth plan and that it would be challenging to expand oil production to the level promised in the ERGP and achieve the 20 percent unconditional emissions reduction promised in the NDC.

Other examples abound. In the first few pages of its NDC, Ghana asserted that its NDC is designed to resonate with its development agenda (Ghana Shared Growth Development Agenda II— GSGDA 2). However, it missed the opportunity to use the NDC to strategically support economic diversification, energy investment and climate-smart, agricultural expansion, which are thrusts of Ghana's long-term national socio-economic transformation plan. In Sierra Leone, agriculture employs more than half of the country's formal and informal workforce and accounts for about half of GDP (MTDP). Although 75 percent of its land is arable, only about 10 percent is cultivated, and farmers have limited access to improved varieties of seeds, equipment, and fertilizers. Yet, the NDC of Sierra Leone fails to mention poverty alleviation even once, and it pays minimal attention to mobilizing finance and investment to improve the mechanization and climate resilience of the agricultural system.

A report by the African Development Bank that analyzed the climate adaptation components in African NDCs indicates that most NDCs do not have clearly quantified goals or resource mobilization plans. Another report that analyzed the sectoral contribution of African NDCs towards renewable energy found that several of them are vague, with generic declarations of intent but no apparent link to national development plans and priorities.

There are several reasons for the lack of proper connection between the NDCs of many African countries and their national development plans. First, the relationship between national development and climate action can be complex. With the focus of national development often on economic goals and the emphasis of climate action on emission reduction and adaptation, trade-offs are usually required, such as when providing more access to modern energy through fossil fuel or when expanding agricultural lands results in more GHG emissions. Other reasons for the lack of proper integration include limited capacity, lack of coordination between institutions, the rushed and closed process through which most African NDCs were drafted, and the lack of political will to mandate close integration.

Enhancing the Synergy between NDCs and Development Plans

There are many potential conflicts and trade-offs between national economic development goals and climate action in Africa. However, there are also several methods and tools for helping make the two plans pull in the same direction, with the NDCs supporting national development and national economic plans helping to promote climate action. Well-thought-out national development efforts and NDCs—where achieving coherence is identified as a priority from the outset—can work together to facilitate emission reduction, build resilience, and achieve broader socio-economic objectives by stimulating action in key sectors like energy, transport, power, agriculture and food, urban planning, trade, and land use.

Arguably, the two areas that offer the greatest prospects for linking the NDCs and national development in the African continent are agriculture and the energy sector. The agricultural sector has an immense impact on the livelihood assets of African countries, with cross-cutting implications for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. In addition, the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is central to the realization of Africa's developmental objectives of meeting the food requirements of its teeming population and addressing extreme poverty and hunger in the continent.

Unlike many European countries, the AFOLU sector accounts for the bulk of emissions in Africa—up to 60 percent in some countries like Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. At the same time, because over 86 percent of agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa is rain-fed, even moderate changes in rainfall patterns can have a substantial negative impact on productivity and food security. Furthermore, in several African countries, agriculture employs a vast proportion of the labour force and remains Africa's largest economic sector, representing roughly 15 percent of the continent's total GDP. For example, in the case of Nigeria, agriculture employs up to 70 percent of the population and contributes 26 percent to the nation's GDP. Therefore, finding ways to scale up investment in climate-smart agriculture in Africa's NDCs is a significant way to link climate action and national development in Africa.

The second critical elements are renewable energy and energy efficiency measures. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is characterized by the paradox of enduring, widespread energy poverty amid abundant renewable and non-renewable energy resources. These resources can contribute significantly to addressing the energy access problem in the region in ways that enhance energy security, promote climate action, economic resilience, and social equity. However, only about 40 percent of the SSA's population of roughly 1.2 billion has access to electricity. Today, over 727 million people on the continent rely on solid biofuel, which accounts for 81.2 percent of the total bioenergy consumed annually, while 70–90 percent of the total primary energy supply in most states (excluding South Africa) is provided through biomass.

With a vast untapped renewable energy potential, African NDCs that stimulate investments in green energy will go a long way in altering Africa's energy supply deficit and boost employment, create green jobs, and increase foreign exchange earnings. Africa's energy consumption is growing in line with its exponential increase in population. NDCs aligned with national development plans can help minimize energy use in the sectors with strong influence over development, such as industry, housing, and transport.

Other important areas include investment in technological innovation, energy efficiency, and waste-to-wealth programs. Furthermore, fast-tracking the digital economy through the promotion of e-commerce, e-health, e-learning, and e-banking will help to bring Africa's burgeoning informal sector into the formal economy, create jobs, spur economic growth, and reduce emissions. Far too many African states are mono-economies reliant on a single commodity for economic growth. Often, the same commodities are tasked with achieving the ambitious goals of emissions actions in the NDCs. Hence, economic diversification—especially climate-smart agriculture and food processing, distributive renewable energy, and green innovation—is a significant intervention for aligning national development plans with the NDC.

Closing the Financing Gap

Some would argue that while there are certainly more opportunities to better align the NDCs of African countries with their national development goals, the bigger priority is how to find the financing to fund many of the excellent development-relevant initiatives in the NDCs. An analysis produced by the African Development Bank shows that the implementation of Africa's NDCs will require about US$3 trillion in investment. The World Bank estimates that meeting Africa's adaptation requirement alone will require an investment of about US$18 billion per year by 2030. This figure is the same order of magnitude as the projection made by the UNEP adaptation gap report (US$7 billion to US$15 billion by 2020). This represents about 2.19 percent of Africa's GDP (based on the IMF's published 2018 figure of US$3.52 trillion).

However, in general terms, Africa has so far been able to mobilize only a tiny fraction of the humongous sum it needs to implement the climate mitigation and adaptation plans in its NDCs. Moreover, funding for climate action and national development are more limited now in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic: the continent's economy is projected to contract by US$173.1 to US$236.7 billion in 2020–2021. Nevertheless, all of Africa's NDCs echo the imperative for funding, with plenty of the critical actions listed as conditional mitigation measures subject to the receipt of international support.

Hence it is clear thatfinancial support is one major way for bilateral and multilateral development partners to help promote the implementation of actions linking ambitious climate action with sustainable economic development on the African continent.

A Sample of Key Continental Initiatives

AU Agenda 2063 provides a strong anchor for climate mitigation and adaptation aimed at equitable resource utilization sustainably within Africa's economic circumstances. It seeks to establish a climate-resilient, low-carbon production system that will reduce Africa's susceptibility to climate risk through sustainability certification processes for all agricultural and industrial activities, among other things. Africa has previously launched the Africa Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI) and the African Adaptation Initiative (AAI), aiming to provide a framework to scale up action on renewable energy investment and climate adaptation. In addition, an African Climate Fund (ACF) is expected to be established to help close the gap in climate funding.

Several other continental instruments fashioned to integrate climate action into national objectives include the African Green Stimulus Programme (AGSP), an urgent response focusing on critical sectors hit hardest by the pandemic, such as ecotourism and the biodiversity economy. AGSP aims to build synergies, forge partnerships, and enhance cooperation and coordination of existing climate change, biodiversity, desertification, land degradation, and green economy programmes to support the green recovery of Africa.

To reduce waste, Africa's circular economy alliance, known as African Circular Economy Alliance (ACEA), was launched in 2017. In a similar vein, Africa Green, Partnership for Action on Green Economy, was also formed; it aims to point Africa towards low-carbon pathways that will build a climate-resilient civilization. In addition, the Pan-African Action Agenda was formulated to promote sustainable utilization of ecosystems through restoration initiatives that build the resiliency and regenerative capacity of the natural world. The agenda sets out plans those African members will adopt when planning, monitoring, and implementing ecosystem-related restoration measures. Assistance from international development partners will complement a wide range of initiatives in the continent.

Final Words

Africa is facing the twin challenge of reducing climate-change-related risk while simultaneously fostering sustainable and resilient economic growth. Achieving these two objectives requires that African governments carefully and strategically connect their NDCs with their national development plans.

However, their current NDCs and development plans are at best only moderately linked. This misalignment will likely render their NDCs ineffective or reduce their utility as a basis for sustainable development planning. At the same time, such gaps will represent missed opportunities for Africa to leverage the process of managing the climate challenge to address socio-economic development imperatives. Thus, one essential requirement for strengthening the connection between the NDCs and the national development plans, as advocated in this short article, is that African governments must always keep in mind their countries' unique positions in the global economic structure and be determined to take a "homegrown" approach to achieving long-term sustainable development—and, finally, better wellbeing for their citizens.

About the Author

Professor Chukwumerije Okereke is the Director of Center for Climate Change and Development, Alex Ekwuwme Federal University Ndufu-Alike Nigeria, and Coordinating Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR6 Working Group 3.