Summary

Introduction

This year's COP29, widely referred to as the ‘Finance COP’, took place from November 11 to 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan. The aim was to renew the global focus on finance as a critical enabler and a key tool for transforming climate ambitions into concrete actions. The conference took place against the backdrop of a worsening climate crisis: The decade from 2015 to 2024 is set to be the hottest on record, marked by accelerating glacial melt, rising sea levels and warming oceans.¹ This year alone witnessed the longest-lasting tropical cyclone on record, some of the worst-ever wildfires, historic drought in the Amazon and parts of the African continent, as well as record levels of ocean warming, flash flooding and other extreme weather events that have disrupted communities and economies worldwide, particularly in Africa.

Underscoring the worsening situation, the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released the State of the Climate 2024 Update, issuing a red alert about the rapid increase of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The report indicated that the global average surface air temperature has risen to 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels, signalling the need for immediate climate action. The worsening climate crisis is compounded by growing geopolitical tensions, deteriorating socioeconomic inequalities and ongoing wars. However, as UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated, ‘the most vulnerable suffer the most’.² For these populations – many of whom are on the African continent – failure to achieve bold and concrete action at COP29 was not an option.

In this brief, we analyse the outcomes of COP29 through the lens of the needs and priorities of African countries and offer reflections on what the future of climate action in Africa might look like beyond COP29.

Needs and priorities for Africa at COP29

In the lead-up to COP29, the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), alongside relevant stakeholders such as policymakers, researchers, civil society, women and youth, worked to advance a robust agenda aligned with the continent’s priorities. The goal was to shape international climate frameworks to address Africa’s unique needs, challenges and vulnerabilities effectively and sustainably.

In the context of Africa's high vulnerability to climate change and the critical shortfall of climate finance reaching the continent, securing finance was the top priority. Given the central role of climate finance in implementing effective and sustained climate action, the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) was a major point of discussion at the AGN pre-COP meeting. Delegates focused on setting clear, measurable short-, medium- and long-term goals for climate finance, with a particular focus on ensuring that Africa’s climate priorities are adequately represented in the NCQG agreement at COP29.

Moreover, at the 12th Conference on Climate Change and Development in Africa (CCDA), held in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, on August 30, 2024, Dr. Jihane El Gaouzi of the African Union emphasised the importance of adaptation and resilience for Africa, and that African nations will need approximately USD 3 trillion by 2030 to implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Adaptation and resilience-building were also underscored at the AGN pre-COP meeting, whose COP29 agenda included climate finance, gender equality, inclusivity and sustainable agriculture. Particular emphasis was placed on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and on addressing transboundary climate adaptation risks (TCARs), both crucial components of Africa’s climate response strategy.

These needs and priorities were further highlighted by civil society under the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance (PACJA). In a consolidated declaration, the PACJA called for global commitments to address key areas such as adaptation, a just transition, critical minerals, mitigation and carbon market transparency. They also underscored the importance of meaningful youth engagement in climate negotiations, stressing that Africa’s young population must actively shape climate solutions, as they will inherit the consequences of today’s policies.

COP29 outcomes for Africa

With a focus on the key themes of finance, adaptation and resilience, gender, mitigation, just transition, and loss and damage, this section provides an overview of COP29’s outcomes for Africa, and by extension other Global South countries.

Climate finance

Though global climate finance hit a record USD 1.3 trillion annually in 2021/2022, this remains insufficient to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C. According to the Climate Policy Initiative, annual climate finance must increase at least sixfold to USD 8.5 trillion by 2030 and exceed USD 10 trillion annually from 2031 to 2050 to meet global climate goals. In recognition of these growing needs, the highlight of COP29 was the establishment of the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG). The NCQG aims to align with the Paris Agreement by supporting Africa, Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Developing Countries (DCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in achieving their NDCs, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and long-term strategies for climate resilience. It also incorporates the intersectional considerations of climate action by emphasising just transition and human rights considerations, including gender equality and the rights of Indigenous Peoples, children, youth, persons with disabilities and other vulnerable groups.

COP29 tripled the 2009 pledge of USD 300 billion per year from public and private sources to USD 1.3 trillion by 2035. Additionally, the updated goal allows for ‘voluntary’ contributions from developing countries, including China, which have not previously been formal providers of official climate finance.³ Although the new finance goal represents a significant increase from the previous USD 100 billion pledge, it has been heavily criticised by developing nations as grossly inadequate to meet the scale of the climate crisis.⁴

Developing countries voiced strong dissatisfaction with the financial package, with India dismissing it as ‘a paltry sum’, and Nigeria’s envoy, Nkiruka Maduekwe, labelling it ‘an insult’. In contrast, the EU and the US heralded the agreement as a historic milestone, further illustrating the divide between the priorities of developed and developing nations. Many representatives felt betrayed by the Global North, highlighting the ongoing inequality in climate negotiations. There were criticisms about the failure to address historical responsibilities and provide sufficient support for adaptation and loss and damage. This criticism is best understood in the context of the increasing climate vulnerabilities and impacts faced by low-emission countries, coupled with the responsibility of high-emission nations to provide adequate financial support to address the damage caused by their past and ongoing contributions to climate change.

Beyond the NCQG, COP29 saw several announcements aimed at enhancing finance for climate action including:

COP29 also witnessed progress in global climate finance governance with the introduction of the ‘Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T’, whose main objective is to streamline financial reporting and align efforts across COP Presidencies. Additionally, the Baku Initiative for Climate Finance, Investment, and Trade (BICFIT) was launched to align climate finance, investment and trade with the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement goals.

While these developments show promise, they also highlight growing tensions between developed and developing nations. African ministers strongly opposed including private investments in the NCQG, emphasising public finance as essential for addressing historic climate injustices. Nigeria's environment minister, Balarabe Lawal, noted that private investments are insufficient for Africa's needs, while Sierra Leone's Jiwoh Abdulai highlighted the systemic barriers to accessing such funds. Leaders from Zambia, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, Nigeria and Angola all rejected ‘market-rate loans’ and ‘export credits’, arguing these mechanisms disproportionately exclude African nations. They called for clear implementation plans that focus on public grants rather than profit-driven investments.

Adaptation and resilience

Africa’s high vulnerability to climate change makes adaptation and resilience building particularly important. At COP29, adaptation discussions centred on two critical areas: the ‘global goal on adaptation’ (GGA) and NAPs. The GGA, guided by the UAE framework adopted at COP28, focuses on seven thematic, four-dimensional targets, addressing priorities ranging from water security to cultural heritage preservation. To support these goals, the UAE-Belém work programme, launched in 2023, aims to develop indicators for tracking progress.

COP29 also established a support programme for LDCs to implement their NAPs, with all nations expected to submit their plans by 2025. Ministers, financial experts and international donors convened during a high-level dialogue to explore innovative financing and technical support mechanisms, concluding with a call to expedite action toward the 2025 submission deadline. Despite these efforts, negotiations were marked by significant divergences. The inclusion of ‘means of implementation’ (MOI) indicators – widely understood as finance – and whether GGA should become a permanent agenda item along with the concept of ‘transformational adaptation’ became contentious issues. Developed countries resisted the inclusion of MOI language, citing broader financial obligations, while developing nations underscored its necessity for large-scale adaptation actions.⁵ A compromise was reached by softening the language to ‘enablers of implementation’, encompassing finance, governance and transparency. While this bridged some gaps, it left many developing nations, including the LMDCs, LDCs, the African group and the Arab group, dissatisfied.

As a notable outcome, COP29 launched the Baku Adaptation Roadmap to guide future work on adaptation and set a clear path toward COP30. This roadmap includes a process for continued expert collaboration on adaptation indicators and further exploration of ‘transformational adaptation’, a concept aimed at fostering systemic, long-term resilience. However, discussions on the adaptation fund, the review of the adaptation committee’s effectiveness and other related matters were deferred to the next Session of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies (SBs) in Bonn.

COP29 also elevated the voices of Indigenous Peoples and local communities through the adoption of the Baku Workplan and the renewal of the Facilitative Working Group’s (FWG) mandate under the Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform (LCIPP). This decision acknowledged the leadership role of Indigenous Peoples in addressing climate challenges and fostered greater collaboration with local communities.

Despite timid progress on the GGA and the means of implementation, COP29 made incremental progress on adaptation, including the launch of critical roadmaps and frameworks, while highlighting persistent divisions over financial mechanisms and implementation strategies. These outcomes set the stage for continued negotiations and decisions at future sessions, with a renewed focus on inclusivity, innovation and actionable climate resilience.

Loss and damage

The Loss and Damage Fund was a major priority for African delegates and stakeholders. Efforts from previous COPs (COP27 in Egypt and COP28 in the UAE) laid the foundation for this fund. This year, the COP29 Presidency collaborated with the Fund Board, the World Bank and donor countries to finalise preparations. A key issue was whether loss and damage should be included within the NCQG on climate finance.⁶ Developing nations and climate-justice groups pushed for its inclusion, arguing that it should be a core component or a sub-goal of the NCQG to address the increasing climate-related disasters impacting vulnerable communities. However, developed countries resisted expanding the scope of the NCQG, citing that loss and damage was not part of the previous USD 100 billion finance goal. Ultimately, the NCQG text excluded loss and damage, merely acknowledging existing gaps in addressing the issue and emphasising the need for public, grant-based finance.⁷

Progress on operationalising the loss and damage fund was made through the signing of key documents, enabling the fund to start distributing money by 2025. Critical agreements were also signed, including Trustee and Secretariat Hosting Agreements with the World Bank and the Host Country Agreement with the Philippines. On the finance side, additional pledges, including USD 19 million from Sweden, brought the total contributions to USD 759 million, up from USD 674 million. COP29 also launched an annual dialogue on loss and damage funding coordination. This platform aims to enhance coordination across UNFCCC and external stakeholders, ensuring more effective resource allocation for climate-impacted communities.

There were also discussions on governance mechanisms, which focused on the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM), established in 2013 to support loss and damage activities, alongside newer components like the Santiago Network. However, significant disagreements arose. Developing countries, particularly the G77 and China, pushed for regional offices for the Santiago Network and guidelines for reporting loss and damage in official climate plans, but these proposals faced resistance from developed nations. The G77 and China also called for a regular ‘gap report’ to assess shortfalls in addressing loss and damage, similar to the annual adaptation gap report. ⁸

Although COP29 facilitated some advancements, there was a lack of movement from ambition to action (the mantra of COP29), to the disappointment of many climate-vulnerable delegates and stakeholders. In the end, key issues on loss and damage were postponed to COP30.

Just transition

At COP29, the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) and the energy transition agenda emerged as critical, yet contentious topics. The JTWP, introduced to address the socio-economic impacts of climate transitions, made historic progress at COP28 with the recognition of labour rights within the UNFCCC framework. However, follow-up discussions at the SBs in 2024 stalled, as developing countries pushed for actionable outcomes, while developed countries viewed work plan proposals as premature. These divisions persisted at COP29, with the G77 and China advocating for a broader focus on adaptation, equity and international cooperation, while developed nations, including the EU and the US, prioritised mitigation and alignment with the 1.5°C target.⁹ Disagreements over nationally determined just transition pathways, equity and human rights further complicated the talks.

A revised JTWP text introduced late in the negotiations removed key references, such as the global stocktake, and failed to reflect earlier constructive engagement, alienating developing countries. Civil society groups and negotiators criticised the process as unjust, accusing Global North governments of narrowing rights-based language and undermining principles like equity and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR).¹⁰ Despite recommendations from civil society to adopt a minimal decision acknowledging past progress and inviting future submissions, the CSOs stated that the final JTWP draft contained too many ‘red lines’ for parties to agree.¹¹ The lack of consensus marked a significant setback for the JTWP, jeopardising years of progress and leaving its future uncertain.

Energy transition negotiations also faced similar challenges. Parties were expected to translate the conclusions of the Global Stocktake – emphasising the need to phase out fossil fuels and align climate pledges with the 1.5°C target – into actionable commitments. However, the talks diverged from the momentum of COP28, with the draft decision removing processes to track fossil fuel transition implementation. References to the ‘Dubai deal’,¹² which strongly advocated for phasing out fossil fuels, were diluted. Resistance from the Arab Group, including Saudi Arabia, further stalled progress, with some parties actively backtracking on commitments to reduce fossil fuel reliance.¹³ Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev underscored this resistance by referring to fossil fuel resources as a ‘gift from God’,¹⁴ clashing with the urgent demands of climate advocates and developing nations. As a result, the decision on fossil fuel transition was postponed to future climate meetings, representing a significant setback.

Despite these challenges, COP29 saw some positive developments under the energy transition agenda. In partnership with the International Energy Agency (IEA), the COP29 Presidency endorsed energy transition goals supported by 150 parties. Three major pledges were announced to accelerate progress:

These initiatives are essential to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals and maintaining the 1.5°C target. Additionally, the UK announced a USD 193 million package for clean energy initiatives, including support for clean cooking technologies to benefit 10 million people in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and the Indo-Pacific. While COP29 made advancements in energy transition initiatives and established ambitious targets for renewable energy and hydrogen, the lack of consensus on the JTWP and the postponement of decisions on phasing out fossil fuels highlighted significant gaps in political will and ambition. These outcomes underscore the need for stronger global commitments to ensure equitable and effective climate transitions in Africa and globally.

Mitigation

Africa contributes less than 4 per cent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but disproportionately bears the severe impacts of climate change. At COP29, ambitious global emissions reduction targets paired with a balanced approach to sustainable development and mitigation needs remained top priorities on the African agenda.

The Mitigation Work Programme (MWP) was one of the focuses of discussion at COP29. Established at COP26 and formally adopted at COP27, the MWP aims to enhance global mitigation efforts. At COP28 in Dubai, discussions stalled over disagreements on whether it should send high-level political messages. These disagreements continued during the SBs in Bonn in June 2024, and at COP29 in Baku, negotiations ultimately ended in deadlock. The failure to resolve differences in energy transition at COP29 significantly impacted the MWP. Developing countries, including the LMDCs, the African group and the Arab group, rejected the informal note prepared by the co-facilitators, claiming it went beyond the MWP mandate. In the end, a deal on the MWP was made with a minor change: It refers to the ‘mobilisation’ instead of ‘provision’ of support to developing countries. However, it excluded references to the Global Stocktake or the 1.5°C target, undermining its initial ambition.

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, focused on building a framework for international carbon markets, was another key topic of the mitigation discussions. After nearly a decade of negotiations, COP29 reached an agreement on:

While the agreed rules prioritise transparency, environmental integrity and sustainable development, their success will hinge on effective implementation and robust oversight.¹⁶ A range of stakeholders also raised concerns about the role of carbon markets in climate finance.¹⁷ Critics argued that paying developing countries to cut emissions – allowing wealthier countries to count those reductions towards their targets – provides no real net benefit for global emissions reductions.¹⁸ This skepticism reflects the ongoing debate over the effectiveness and fairness of carbon markets as a primary tool for climate finance and mitigation.

Another significant success was the launch of the ‘Reducing Methane from Organic Waste’ declaration by the COP29 Presidency. Signed by 30 countries responsible for 47 per cent of global methane emissions from organic waste (including seven of the world’s top 10 emitters) the declaration commits signatories to:

• setting sectoral methane reduction targets within their NDCs;
• developing concrete policies and roadmaps to reduce methane from waste and food systems through policies, financing and innovative partnerships.

The initiative, developed with the UNEP-convened Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), builds on the 2021 Global Methane Pledge to reduce global methane emissions by 30 per cent below 2020 levels by 2030. With organic waste as the third-largest source of anthropogenic methane emissions, the declaration emphasises prevention, separate collection and improved waste management practices. This aligns with the Paris Agreement and represents a significant step toward integrating agricultural practices into climate action.

Despite these mitigation efforts, a glaring omission in the 14 official COP29 initiatives was any commitment to phasing out fossil fuels. The observers criticised this as a major oversight, given the outsized role of fossil fuels in driving global emissions.

Gender

At COP29, gender inclusivity was a central topic of discussion, reflecting the growing recognition of the disproportionate impacts of climate change on women and girls. Climate change exacerbates existing gender inequalities, endangering their rights, livelihoods, health and well-being. In a worst-case scenario, an estimated 158 million additional women and girls could fall into poverty – 16 million more than men and boys.¹⁹ Women environmental defenders face additional threats of violence and harassment, underscoring the urgency of addressing gender in climate policies.²⁰

Key negotiation issues at COP29 included financing, inclusive language and the placement of gender discussions. Global South countries demanded committed funding for gender policies, while the Global North wanted these decisions in finance negotiations. The EU and AILAC supported inclusive terms like ‘intersectionality’, but faced opposition from the G77, the African Group and others. The EU and US pushed for including gender under the Paris Agreement, while developing nations preferred keeping it under the UN climate convention to avoid duplication.²¹ Progress was further stalled by disagreements over the inclusion of references to ‘gender’, with some parties – including the Vatican, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran and Egypt – opposing the language due to concerns over implied recognition of transgender rights and support for LGBTQ+ issues. Ultimately, COP29’s draft decision text called for gender mainstreaming, the full participation of women in decision-making and ensuring a just transition with quality jobs. It also stressed the importance of gender-responsive climate finance, capacity-building and data collection to empower grassroots women, Indigenous communities and local actors. Building on the Lima Work Programme on Gender established at COP20, parties at COP29 agreed to extend the programme for another 10 years, with plans to adopt a new gender action plan at COP30 to guide concrete implementation. This long-term commitment underscores the importance of integrating gender considerations into climate policies to ensure fairness, equality, effectiveness and sustainability.

Implications and next steps for climate action in Africa

Despite decades of international climate agreements, global GHG emissions and temperatures continue their relentless rise. With 2024 poised to become the hottest year on record, the stark inadequacy of global efforts to combat the climate crisis has become undeniable. Extreme weather events are wreaking havoc worldwide, disproportionately impacting the most vulnerable communities. Against this sobering backdrop, COP29 began with many expressing skepticism about its potential outcomes. Held in Azerbaijan, a petrostate, the summit faced additional scrutiny due to the absence of key global leaders, including US President Joe Biden, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Olaf Scholz and EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen. This raised doubts about the ambition and seriousness of the negotiations.

Nevertheless, COP29 achieved some notable milestones. The enhanced collaboration between representatives of COP28 (UAE), COP29 (Azerbaijan) and COP30 (Brazil) may be seen as a development in the right direction. This cooperation could help build continuity in ambitious climate policies, setting the stage for successful outcomes in future COPs. Inclusivity took centre stage at the Youth-led Climate Forum, where children, including a 10-year-old, acted as moderators and speakers, underscoring the importance of intergenerational collaboration and justice.²² Additionally, the UNFCCC revised observer badge allocations, increasing representation from non-governmental organisations and civil society from developing countries to address historical imbalances. The Global Climate Action space fostered partnerships among governments, businesses and civil society, while the High-Level Champions unveiled the 2024 Yearbook of Global Climate Action, highlighting the vital role of non-party stakeholders in advancing the Paris Agreement's goals.²³ Transparency also received a boost with the launch of the Baku Global Climate Transparency Platform (BTP). This initiative aims to support developing countries in preparing Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs), facilitate knowledge-sharing on the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) and mobilise capacity-building resources.

Despite these advancements, COP29 fell short on critical issues, particularly for Africa and the Global South. Historical polluters, responsible for the majority of emissions, have yet to commit adequate resources to address the growing needs for adaptation, mitigation and loss and damage. The new USD 300 billion annual climate finance goal fell far short of African nations’ and other developing countries’ expectations.

COP29 also highlighted the ongoing struggle for gender equality and inclusivity in climate action. Despite their proven leadership in driving effective climate solutions, women remain underrepresented in decision-making roles. At COP29, only 8 out of 78 world leaders were women, a stagnation – or even regression – from COP28, where 15 of 133 world leaders were women. Women also accounted for only 34 per cent of national delegates, with few delegations achieving gender balance. Early controversy arose when the COP29 presidency announced an all-male 28-member organising committee, a decision swiftly reversed after public backlash. These persistent barriers to women’s participation underscore the urgent need for gender equity in climate negotiations and actions.

Geopolitical tensions and shifting priorities further undermined COP29’s outcomes. Under President-elect Donald Trump, climate finance commitments from the US are expected to decline, creating a significant gap in funding for developing nations. Additionally, budget cuts in some European countries and potential right-wing electoral victories in Germany and Canada threaten to weaken financial and political support for international climate action.²⁴ This lack of funding and political will leaves African nations – already grappling with debt burdens and unjust trade and financial systems – struggling to finance the transformative development needed to address escalating climate impacts. However, as science has made clear, the impacts of climate change transcend borders. Failure to act collectively will have far-reaching implications, not just for vulnerable regions, but for the global community. The urgency of the climate crisis demands actions that match its scale, severity and urgency.

Conclusion and the road to COP30

Although COP29 highlighted the persistent challenges of bridging global ambitions with actionable outcomes, it served as an important platform for dialogue and a stark reminder of the necessity for greater solidarity and decisive climate action. Its convening power, driving the momentum and guiding the path for concrete climate action, remains an area where COPs hold significant influence to make meaningful and sustainable progress. With COP29 behind us, the world must now look towards COP30 with renewed commitment, seeking to honour existing pledges and take bold steps towards climate equity and justice.

Brazil's presidency next year aims to make COP30 a ‘Nature COP’, emphasising the synergies between climate and biodiversity – a promising direction, if matched with real commitments. With countries required to submit new NDCs by February 2025, COP30 is expected to play a pivotal role in ramping up global efforts to slash emissions and support adaptation, resilience-building and loss and damage action. However, for progress to be meaningful, the rhetoric of climate justice must be translated into tangible actions, ensuring that the needs of the most vulnerable are prioritised, and that financial pledges match the scale of the challenge and are honoured.

Endnotes

About the authors

Swetha Covaiselvan

Swetha Covaiselvan is currently a Project Intern with the Climate Change Program at APRI. She holds a Master’s in Public Policy from the Hertie School in Berlin, a postgraduate diploma in Environment and Sustainable Development from IGNOU and a Bachelor’s degree in Commerce from India. Swetha’s expertise lies in policy analysis, with a strong focus on climate policy and sustainable and inclusive development. She previously worked in Endeva, developing inclusive business reports for UN ESCAP.

Dr Grace Mbungu

Dr Grace Mbungu is a Senior Fellow and the Head of the Climate Change Program at APRI, supporting policymakers with timely and evidence-based policy options to enable the creation of long-term, sustainable and inclusive wellbeing and livelihood opportunities. Before joining APRI, Dr. Mbungu was a fellow and research associate at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS), now RIFs, in Potsdam, Germany. From Bowling Green State University (Ohio, USA), she holds a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science and Gender Studies as well as a Master’s degree in Public Administration, with a focus on human rights and international development. She holds a Doctorate from the University of Stuttgart, Germany.