Background

Kenyans head to the polls on August 9 to elect President Uhuru Kenyatta’s successor and to fill various political offices that include governorships, senatorial seats, parliamentary seats, county assemblies and women representatives. The Kenyan multiparty democracy is historically contested and shaped by polarisation, political coalitions and pork-barrel politics. Elections in 1992, 1997 and 2002 all experienced some level of ethnopolitical violence, the worst being the 2007 post-election violence. The 2007 post-election crisis occurred after incumbent President Mwai Kibaki declared himself the winner. Observers described the election as flawed and highly contentious and fraught with claims of electoral irregularities. Mediation saw President Kibaki and Raila Odinga sworn into office as President and Prime Minister in a power-sharing government entitled the Grand Coalition Government and the signing of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act.

This year’s election will be held against that backdrop and consequent constitutional and institutional reforms that have taken place since. Kenya has come a long way since gaining independence from the British empire in 1963 to become one of Africa's economic powerhouses and a peace mediator in a region often fraught with political and institutional instability. One of the most notable developments in the last ten years was the adoption of the new constitution in 2010, which mandates the devolution of power and responsibility to regional and local levels. These reforms also ushered in a new system of governance, characterised by devolved county governments, a bicameral legislature and a tenured judiciary and electoral bodies. Kenyans have largely welcomed these reforms for putting political power closer to the people, promoting regional development based on each region's needs and available resources and engraving institutional independence and accountability. 

A successful election and peaceful transfer of power is crucial for the continuation of Kenya's social, economic and political development but is also vital to the region's stability and to addressing some of the global challenges affecting Kenyans and Africans, such as climate change. 

Four presidential candidates met the constitutional and statutory requirements from a shortlist of 17 aspirants, the lowest number on the ballot since the first multiparty election in 1992. The two frontrunners are William Ruto, Deputy President and flag bearer for the Kenya Kwanza Coalition and Raila Odinga, former Prime Minister and veteran opposition leader of the Azimio la Umoja Coalition. Ruto, aged 55, is vying for the first time, while Odinga, aged 77, is running for the fifth and what he has declared last time after finishing second in all of his previous attempts in (1997, 2007, 2013 and 2017). If Odinga, referred to by his followers as “Baba” (Father), wins, he will be the oldest to serve as President at 77, finally realising his dream of becoming the head of state.

Three of the four presidential candidates have picked female running mates. Odinga’s choice of Martha Karua appears to have given him an electoral boost, especially with women voters. If Odinga wins, it will be the first time Kenya will have a woman as Deputy President. Karua, also known as the Iron Lady because of her tough stance on corruption, has promised to jail the corrupt if she becomes the second in command. Her success is also expected to inspire women to vie for political office and to  increase women’s participation in politics.

Surveys by the two leading opinion pollsters in Kenya, TIFA Research and InfoTrak Research, put Odinga ahead by a narrow margin.The TIFA Research poll, conducted in early July, put Odinga in the lead with 42 percent compared to Ruto with 39 percent. The InfoTrak Research poll predicted a 43 percent or 37 percent win for Odinga or Ruto, respectively. Both polls predicted a second round of election, because the two leading candidates are unlikely to get the absolute majority of 50 percent plus one vote as stipulated in  the 2010 constitution.

However, Ruto dismissed the polls as fake. In separate campaign rallies, Odinga and Ruto each assured their supporters that they were confident of winning 60 percent of the first round’s votes. They believe that their ability to pull large crowds in rallies will translate to votes. 

These elections are expected to be the most competitive in Kenya’s political history since multi-party politics in the early 1990s, especially as President Kenyatta is backing veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga against his own Deputy William Ruto, with whom he formed a government in 2013. While the Kenyattas and Odingas have remained the top two dominant political dynasties since Kenya’s independence in 1963, Kenyatta´s backing of Odinga was a surprise to many because Ruto is his deputy and former political ally. They contested in 2013 and 2017 as running mates and were indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for allegedly masterminding the 2007 post-election violence. They teamed up to fight the ICC indictments, and the ICC charges were dropped amidst allegations of witness tampering. 

Kenyatta claims he is backing Odinga because Odinga is an experienced and visionary leader with the interest of the people, can unite the country and end the cycle of violence that Kenyans have witnessed after every election. In response to Kenyatta’s endorsement for Odinga, Ruto has positioned himself as a “hustler” and outsider to Kenya’s long-running political dynasties. Days to the elections, the campaign trail has been dominated by a war of words between both leading camps, moving away from issue-based politics to attacking each other’s personalities, raising political temperatures and putting Kenyans on high alert. 

However, shifting alliances are not a new thing in Kenyan politics. Kenyan political space is characterised by fragmented opposition parties and coalition building, where the shifting of political allegiance is often used as a tool to gain or maintain political power. For example, a pre-election coalition and political memorandum of understanding between the National Alliance Party of Kenya (NAK) and the Rainbow Coalition, also known as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led to the creation of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC). NARC overwhelmingly won the 2002 election to end the long rule of the Kenya African National Union (KANU). The 2002 election marked a new era. However, the NARC coalition collapsed in 2005 over internal power struggles, corruption and diverging policy positions. The leading figures of NARC, Raila Odinga, Mwai Kibaki and Kalonzo Musyoka formed new separate alliances. In 2007, Kibaki ran on the Party of National Unity (PNU) ticket and Odinga on that of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), under which Raila Odinga and William Ruto were once allies. Perhaps a positive observation is an appetite for Kenyans to stay united as a country and avoid any political divide along ethnic lines. In this year’s elections, politicians have taken note of the current political mood of the county, and most coalitions (including those of the two leading candidates) are highly heterogeneous.

The state of the economy is the top issue for voters. While Kenya’s economy expanded by 7.5 percent in 2021, global production and trade disruptions due to COVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have had devastating effects on the cost of living. These external challenges caused the service sector to contract, increased the cost of Kenyan imports such as fuel, fertiliser and wheat and increased unemployment and food insecurity. Domestically, the cost of living has been increased by rising inflation, drought, high input costs and the Kenyan shilling (KSh) depreciating against major currencies. However, this  increase has not been matched by commensurate wages and salaries, resulting in an economic strain for many Kenyans. Additionally, public debt has increased due to huge infrastructure development, social spending and corruption.

Government subsidies for fuel, fertiliser and recently maize flour have offered citizens little relief from these shocks. Most Kenyans cannot access affordable healthcare, and the majority of young people who graduate each year remain unemployed. The deteriorating economic development and increased living costs have sparked online activism with the youth condemning the government’s poor economic management and demanding governance and structural reforms. On July 7th 2022, over 1700 took to the streets to protest against the state’s failure to address the rising high cost of living. 

Corruption is another big voter concern in Kenya. Between 2018 and 2021, Kenya ranked between 144 and 128 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. The 2019 Global Corruption Barometer showed that 67 percent of Kenyans believed corruption had increased. Earlier this year, President Kenyatta admitted that Kenya loses KSh2 billion (US$16.8m) daily to corruption. Voters are not impressed by political rhetoric on corruption and want to elect a leader who can deal decisively with the issue. They perceive Odinga and Ruto as veteran politicians who have benefitted from corruption and so are not optimistic about either’s ability to fight Kenya’s endemic politico-administrative corruption. 

Another challenge for the candidates is how they will unite a country that is both politically divided and where young people are now refusing to vote along the traditional tribal lines. Fluid ethno-regional cohesion is now the norm in Kenyan politics. The rising middle class is keen to elect leaders with a vision to unify the country and improve the livelihoods of all Kenyans. 

These economic problems and public discontent will continue after the elections, and Kenyatta’s successor will need to make fixing the economy a top priority. Ruto and Odinga are promising to revive the economy and lower the high cost of living. In his manifesto, Odinga highlighted a ten-point agenda, the top point being economic empowerment of the poor and a crackdown on widespread corruption. He says that all vulnerable Kenyans will receive KSh 6,000, around US$50, every month through a new social protection fund. Asked where he will get the funds to implement the programme, Odinga said it will come from cracking down on widespread corruption. He also plans to advance Mr Kenyatta’s development agenda, mainly in infrastructure projects such as roads, railways and ports, and improve healthcare access and affordability through his Baba Care initiative.

Ruto also launched a five-point agenda designed to appeal to the large group of informal economy workers. Ruto, previously a chicken seller and referred to by his followers as a hustler, now a multi-billionaire, says he will use a bottom-up economic development approach, targeting to promote investments of ordinary Kenyans and empowering them financially so the country can generate taxes to spur the economy. The informal sector’s small businesses were affected by curfews and restrictions over the Covid 19 pandemic. Ruto plans to set aside a special fund of about KSh 50 billion (€411.4 million) per year to fund small businesses. With unemployment among youths aged between 18 and 34 years at nearly 40 percent, he is promising to create 4 million jobs. He also pledges to bring down living costs in the first 100 days in office. However, his critics, including the outgoing President Kenyatta, have criticised Ruto’s promises as empty, questioning why he has not fulfilled them over the last 19 years while he was Deputy.

Deep voter distrust and cynicism mean that both candidates are having a tough time explaining their plans. They have both held senior government and political positions, and many voters are questioning their motivation and new promises, leading to low enthusiasm and potential low voter turn-out. Voter registration drives have yielded lower than expected results. The electoral body, (Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and political analysts have attributed this voter apathy to economic hardship and corruption in the country, which has caused the youth to lose trust in political leaders and discouraged them from engaging in the electoral process.

The IEBC has registered more than 22 million eligible voters for this election of presidential, parliamentary, Women Representatives, Senators, governors, and members of the county assemblies. Even though the IEBC is an independent body, the Supreme Court annulled the 2017 presidential vote for not being conducted in accordance with the Constitution and termed it flawed. With that in mind, the IEBC is now promising a free and fair election. However, a few months before the polls, the IEBC Chairman, Wafula Chebukati, cited political interference and budget cuts as major drawbacks in efforts to hold credible elections, allegations that the government has denied.

To earn the trust of the voters and election players, the IEBC has held various consultative meetings with the four presidential candidates to address issues that might undermine the electoral process. For instance, in this election, voters will be identified through an electronic register, and manual registration will be the last resort, with poll officials saying the system will guard against illegal voters. Ahead of this year’s election, all presidential candidates and leaders of political parties signed a peace charter, with commitments to promote and advocate for peace before and after the August 9th election, to avoid a repeat of the 2007 political violence. Moreover, for the first time, the media will be allowed to transmit the presidential results live and have parallel tallying, a move the electoral body says will also ensure transparency in the final result. The IEBC is also taking steps to counter online misinformation. 

Around the world, election disinformation and misinformation are growing challenges, and governments are instituting proactive measures to tackle it. Kenya has over 23.35 million active internet users. Social media has become an alternative media space for news and information and could be used to spread misinformation and stoke tension. The big social media giants have also announced steps to reduce the spread of fake news on their platforms. Kenya’s National Cohesion and Integration Commission issued a seven-day ultimatum to Facebook to improve content moderation on hate speech or risk being banned. The IEBC has announced it will use an AI-driven tool to monitor and counter hate speech.

Because Kenya is a political and economic powerhouse in the East African and the horn of Africa region, its election process and the results are being watched closely by other African countries and the global community. The success of its election and peaceful transfer of power would mean that Kenya is reaping benefits from its political and institutional reforms and, in so doing, setting a good precedent for its neighbours. On the other hand, any political violence would destabilise the fragile economy at a time when many Kenyans’ livelihoods are affected by the worst drought in 40 years, the social and economic pressure from COVID and the current war in Ukraine. On a more regional level, such political instability would threaten the regions’ trade, especially for landlocked countries such as Uganda, Rwanda, DRC and South Sudan, all dependent on Kenya’s port of Mombasa. In 2007, Uganda traders lost about US$600,000 over trade disruptions. Kenya also plays a strategic role in the peace and security of the region. With political instability in Sudan, civil war in Ethiopia, armed conflict in the East of the DRC and security challenges in Somalia, the country plays a vital role in hosting peace talks and sending its forces to keep peace and fight terrorists such as Al Shabab. 

Kenya is also a strategic economic and security partner of many Western governments, including the US and the European Union (EU). The EU relies on Kenya for agricultural exports such as tea, coffee and flowers. Moreover, Kenya, a relatively stable country, presents strategic security partnerships to the West and continues to play a significant role in the peace and security of the region, specifically in addressing the rise of terrorist groups such as the Al Shabab. In June, the US Secretary of state, in a telephone conversation with President Kenyatta, underscored the importance of free and fair Kenyan elections that are peaceful and reflect the will of the Kenyan people. The EU has deployed elections observers to monitor the conduct of the election.

Finally, China has also taken a keen interest in Kenya and has developed a close relationship with the government. In the last ten years, it has backed infrastructure projects to a tune of USD 3.6 billion to construct a standard gauge railway from the port city of Mombasa to the capital Nairobi and another USD 575 million to build a 26-kilometre Nairobi Expressway Road connecting the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport to the west part of the city. There are clear indications that China is keen to continue a close economic relationship with the new administration, and this election’s outcome will shape the course of future cooperation.

Victor Abuso

Victor Abuso is a journalist based in Nairobi, a political commentator on East African politics, and contributes to The Africa Report.